FairPlay, a nonprofit organization, has highlighted two potential scenarios for the South African poultry industry by 2035, dependent on policy decisions regarding job creation and local production. A report issued on December 11 emphasizes that the industry’s future relies on actions related to trade protections, compensation for Avian Influenza losses, infrastructure investment, and the Competition Commission’s inquiry into the market structure.
In the “path of creation” scenario, if policies align with the 2019 Poultry Sector Master Plan, South Africa could see positive growth, especially if anti-dumping duties are enforced and the US poultry import quota expires. The report notes that the current quota stems from conditions under the expired Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which may not be renewed.
FairPlay has actively campaigned against poultry dumping in South Africa and advocates for tax-free chicken to enhance food affordability and security. The organization welcomes scrutiny of the industry but cautions against confusing market structure with abuse, highlighting that integration is key to efficiency and affordability in poultry production.
FairPlay highlights the risks and opportunities within the poultry sector in South Africa.
- Disruption Concerns: Disrupting current structures could raise costs and jeopardize food security, benefiting large foreign exporters while domestic producers face scrutiny.
- Growth Scenario: Investments and practical vaccination protocols could boost slaughter rates from 21.5 million to 22.5 million chickens weekly, increasing the sector’s economic contribution from R72 billion to R100 billion by 2035. Exports could double, production could reach 2.2 million tonnes, and job support could rise from 134,000 to 175,000.
- Stagnation Scenario: Persistent policy contradictions may lead to lower production, with weekly slaughter capacity decreasing and GDP contribution dropping below R50 billion. Local competitiveness would be eroded by continued imports, impacting small businesses and leading to rising chicken prices.
- Critical Decade Ahead: The next ten years are deemed crucial for the poultry sector’s future, determining if it remains a significant national asset or succumbs to neglect.
