There’s good news for the global poultry industry. After several years of challenges, the market is rebounding thanks to rising consumption and controlled production. Rabobank, a major financial services company, predicts poultry meat consumption will grow between 1.5% and 2% globally. This growth is attributed to both strong local demand, particularly in emerging markets, and a return to normalcy in trade after a period of disruption.
Chicken is maintaining its competitive edge as a protein source. While chicken prices have risen slightly by 2%, pork and beef have seen steeper increases of 4% and 5% respectively. However, managing operational costs remains crucial for producers. Feed prices, which had been steadily declining for two years, have shown a slight uptick of 1% due to lower-than-expected harvests. This necessitates careful planning for producers, who may need to prioritize securing feed ingredients and optimizing feed formulations. The potential for a La Niña season, which can disrupt crop yields, adds another layer of complexity.
The growth is not uniform across all regions. The EU and the US are experiencing a positive market environment with healthy demand, controlled production, and rising prices. Conversely, China and Japan have faced challenges due to overly ambitious production exceeding 3%, leading to profitability issues. Brazil, which was also at risk of oversupply, is taking corrective measures through production cuts to achieve market balance.
Global poultry trade witnessed a 5% year-on-year decline in Q1 2024. A significant factor was a 40% reduction in Chinese imports, impacting major exporters like Brazil, the US, and Russia. These countries are now looking for alternative markets, particularly for chicken feet and legs. Additionally, a new EU import quota for Ukraine is expected to influence global trade in breast meat and whole chicken as Ukraine seeks new export destinations.
Avian influenza is still a big problem for the poultry sector globally. Strict biosecurity policies are required to limit hazards, particularly when epidemics return to the Southern Hemisphere, with recent incidences in Australia, South Africa, and Latin America. These epidemics might cause unexpected interruptions to both import and export trade flows.
The worldwide poultry market is expanding, driven by increased demand and disciplined production practices. However, operational cost control, notably feed procurement, and biosecurity measures to prevent avian influenza remain essential priorities for farmers navigating this changing market.feed procurement, and biosecurity measures to prevent avian influenza remain essential.
